Some Financial Advisors Are Doing Well In Today's Economy

Why is this?  It’s because they have the presence of mind to step back and look at the big picture.  Remember the chart in the last article (below) about saving money in an IRA for 50 years?

Look at the early years in that graph.

That was a test.

What are the early years?  The first one, two, three?  There’s hardly any difference between that and the start.  “You mean I’ve been investing for three years with you now and I’ve hardly made anything?  I’ll never get anywhere!”

If only I didn’t hear that, like, all the time!  But that’s not the end of the “early years”.  I’m not talking about 3 years, or 5 years, or 10 or 15 years.  I’m talking about 20 years before you really see the difference in that case, after which the growth really starts to become noticeable and just accelerates from there.  This is why you should start as early as possible, build a trusting relationship with a competent advisor, and then be almost impossibly patient.  I’m not suggesting that you buy-and-forget.  On the contrary, you should be working with an advisor who is not afraid to take time with you and educate you.  What I’m suggesting is that you realize that it will take time, but if you do it, time will be on your side.

Now, what if you want your money to grow faster that what we see in the chart?  Can you do that without saving anything more?  It’s possible, but it involves more risk than you might be comfortable with.  A much better approach is to continually add to that savings, every paycheck.  If you budget properly, you’ll make that a key part of your planning and you’ll pay yourself first!

Let me say that again.  Pay yourself first.  I doubt that there are three more important words that anyone will ever say to you, unless they are “I love you”.  You don’t need a new car as much as you need to have the choice to retire someday, preferably when you want to.

Want to know more?  Let’s talk, and create a plan that’s right for you and your family.

What Kind Of Money Should I Put Away Before 2010?

This is the kind of question that depends completely on you.  By that I mean it depends on your goals and your needs.  Let me explain a little more about what your options are.  If you might need access to that money in the next few years, then you might not want to put it in an IRA or a company 401(k) where there’s a penalty to take it out before you’re age 59 ½.  In that case, you’ll pick a regular taxable brokerage account for the money.

Or, maybe you know you’re okay with having it locked away until retirement (because you actually have a budget and you actually follow it), so the money is going into some sort of retirement savings plan, but which?  The three most basic choices are a company 401(k) plan, a traditional IRA, and a Roth IRA and the decisions revolve around company matching funds, vesting schedules, investment choices and tax considerations.

In the case of a company 401(k), employees typically can save 15% of their gross income, up to $16,500 (in 2009).  That money will be deducted from the gross income used to calculate how much tax you owe, and accordingly, a lower amount of tax will be withheld from your paycheck.  You will eventually have to pay taxes on the money, but you can defer them until much later.  The following chart shows just how wonderful that is.

In this example, we assume that you got $10,000 at age 20 and put it in a tax-deferred account, then never invested anything else after that.  We also assume that you earn 10% on average for the next 50 years, which is do-able, and that you’re in the 25% tax bracket.

The orange line shows what your account would be worth if you paid the taxes due on your earnings from the account every year.  The green line shows what would happen instead if you deferred the tax bill to the end, and the sharp drop in the green line is what would happen if you took all that money out at once at age 70 and therefore had to pay all the tax at once, which I wouldn’t recommend.

In addition, companies often match a portion of your contribution as an incentive to work there.  It’s common for a company to put 50 cents in your account for every $1.00 you put in, up to a pre-defined (by the company) limit.   One company I used to work at matched at that rate up to 6%, meaning that when I put 6%, they’d put in 3%.  If I put in 5%, they’d put in 2.5%.  But 6% was the limit, so if I put in 6.5% or more, they were still maxed at 3%.

That’s a pretty good deal.  If you work at a company which matches, put in at least that amount necessary to get the maximum match.  If you don’t, you’re leaving free money on the table, subject to the vesting schedule.  In some companies, you are 100% vested from day one.  That means that, should you leave the company, you’re entitled to 100% of their matching contributions in addition to your own money.  Often, however, companies will choose to have a 4- or 5-year vesting schedule.  This means that, after one year of employment, you’re entitled to 1/4th or 1/5th of their matching contributions if you leave, and only after 4 or 5 years are you entitled to the full amount of the match.  So, if you’re thinking that you won’t be there that long, the match is much less important.

Now, what about the other 9% (in my example)?  What to do with that?  Now it gets a little more complicated.

You could put that extra money in the 401(k) and get more of a tax benefit, but keep in mind that there are literally thousands of investment choices out there, and you only have access to a dozen or so through your plan at work, not all of which are likely to be good ones.  A tax benefit is nice, but if the investment choices underperform, it may not be everything you hoped.

You might instead choose to have a traditional IRA with a brokerage firm, because up to certain income limits, you may still be able to deduct your contributions, and you’re getting a bigger world of investment choices with the help of a professional advisor.

If you’re getting a big tax refund already, you might not need further deductions and could instead choose to put the money in a Roth IRA, which doesn’t give you any tax-deduction NOW, but instead it allows all of the earnings to grow completely tax-free, provided you adhere to a few fairly easy rules.

In the case of either type of IRA, your savings limit for 2009 is $5,000 per person, or $10,000 for a married couple, and it doesn’t matter if both spouses are employed.  If you’re 50 years of age or older, you’re entitled to a “catch-up” contribution of an extra $1,000.

If that’s not enough or you just want to save more, there’s another level of options not commonly known which we can implement which might be the right thing for you.

The keys are to do it – the earlier the better.  If you have questions or would like me to help, contact me now and let’s get started.

Should I Buy A House Now?

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Lots of people are asking this question lately.  I thought it would be a good time to clarify what I said a few weeks ago about not looking at your primary residence as an investment.  Some people thought I meant they should just continue to rent their living space instead of buying it.  That couldn’t be further from the truth, so let me explain in more detail.

When you buy a house, you are admittedly taking on a huge responsibility, but one which can pay off handsomely down the road.  My parents bought a house in 1964 and took out a 30-year fixed mortgage.  The monthly cost of that mortgage was pretty tough for them to swallow in 1964, but in 1984, when they were still paying $296.00 per month, it was a pretty sweet deal!

The logical conclusion from that is to buy as much house as possible, but don’t overbuy.  Doing that is part of what got us into the huge mess we’re seeing right now, with record foreclosures.  Don’t be afraid of that happening, but also don’t forget that “huge responsibility” part.  Buy what you can afford – you can always trade up later when the time is right.

Now, what was I saying about that not being an investment?  Just remember, even though it is likely to go up in value over time, that money is tied up unless and until you sell the house, but if you do that, you have to buy something else or rent, because you still need a place to live.  The other important consideration is that if you live there for five, ten or more years, you will probably have to replace carpet, paint, perhaps some appliances, maybe even the roof!  That’s not money being paid TO you, which is what an investment is supposed to do.

Contrast that with a rental house, where, for example, you might pay $1000 per month for the mortgage, taxes and insurance, and rent it out for $1200.  That’s $200 per month INTO your pocket, which is what a good investment is all about.

So, bottom line, buy a house if you can, because the alternative is to pay rent, which is exactly the same thing as paying someone else’s mortgage for them.  Just don’t buy more than you can afford and put the rest into real investments, both in the stock and bond markets as well as in real estate.

Contact me if you’d like a professional to help you with doing that!

Don’t Be Apprehensive About The Market!

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“Oh, my gosh!  Did you see what happened in the stock market today?  It was down almost 120 points!”

Ever heard that before?  If you haven’t, you will.  The question is: should you listen?  The answer is: only if you like being really depressed one day and really excited the next day, because that’s typically what happens?  Sometimes we get really good days back-to-back and sometimes really bad days a few times in a row, but that’s still not stepping back far enough.

Let’s say you’re 40 years old, and you started putting money into the stock market 20 years ago.  The S&P 500 was trading at approximately 340 points, compared to nearly 10,000 today.  Or maybe you’re 50 and your start was 30 years ago.  The S&P 500 then was trading for about 100 points.  So between 1979 and 1989, the market tripled.  Between 1989 and 2009, the market grew by 33 times!

Isn’t that a better concept to stick in your mind than what most of the media is alarming you with lately?  Like a market down about 33% in the past two years?

The only reason – at all – to be concerned about the short term in the market is if you plan to retire in the next few years.  If you’re younger than that or if you like your job, you should be taking advantage of the magic of compounding returns to get you in a position where you have choices!  Having the choice to work or not work is a whole lot better than needing to work to make ends meet.  That’s when you might have no choice but to be really aggressive, which can hurt a lot if things don’t go the way you hoped.

And don’t listen to people who say you can’t be too conservative, because you can be!   Remember my article (below) about the Rule of 72.  If you put all your money into CDs right now, your money will grow at a rate lower than inflation.  I don’t know about you, but I’d like my money to double sooner than three to four (or more) decades!

Still confused about the right thing to do?  Let’s talk, and create a plan that’s right for you and your family.

What To Invest In Now - What Does Buying A House Do To My Investment Plan?

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Ideally, nothing! It really should be a part of your entire plan, unless home ownership is not a priority to you.
Should it be a priority?  
For many people it is, but like nearly anything on the planet it really comes down to solid understanding of the individual choices you could make, and why you’d make them. This is probably slightly different advice than you’ve heard other places, so I’ll tell you why I say what I say.
More important than anything else is, why are you buying a house?  
If your answer is because it will be worth a lot more in future years, know the historical appreciation rate for your market, and the likelihood that people will want to move there in the near future.  The appreciation rate must be higher than inflation for your investment to grow and actually BE worth more in the future.
If your answer is that you and your spouse and three kids need some place to live, then you’re not thinking of it as an investment, which is probably a good thing.  I don’t ever factor in your primary residence in your portfolio, because I don’t expect you’re going to sell to invest. You need a place to live. Rental real estate is a completely different discussion.  I’m a landlord myself, so I’m not saying that real estate investing is a bad thing – far from it.
So, given that, what is the definition of a good investment, a.k.a. an ASSET?  Simply put, an asset puts money INTO your pocket, while a liability takes money OUT.   
If you own a home for 10 – 30 years, it’s highly likely you’ll replace the roof, the water heater, the furnace, the carpet, the flooring, and many other things over that period.  That’s not making you money, so it’s not an asset.  In fact, the only way you can get money out is to refinance or sell, so in many cases it’s not a good idea to pay your mortgage down faster than the schedule calls for.  Understand, it’s a case-by-case thing, and you need to have that reviewed.
So, getting back to the first question, buying a house should be a part of your investment plan.
Yet another reason why starting to plan and save and invest early make things a lot easier!  
You want a house, and there are many ways to get the down payment saved for if you’re patient.  
You want to provide an education for your kids, and of course, someday you want to MAKE WORK OPTIONAL.  
By the way, you can’t borrow for that last one, so that should be your number one priority.
The good news is, it’s do-able.  
Let’s get started figuring it out today. Go to http://www.whattoinvestinnow.com

What To Invest In Now - What's The Difference Between A Stock And A Bond?

This poses an interesting question because it highlights how many people really have no idea about the different type of investment “vehicles”, as they are often called.
You know what “equity” is, right?  

Especially if you own a home, it’s the difference between what you owe and what you own.  If you have a $300,000 house and you owe $200,000, then you have $100,000 in equity, or ownership.
Stocks are much the same thing, except that what you own is (typically) a VERY small piece of a major company.  In most cases, you’ve already paid for it in full, and therefore you own it outright with no debt.  (It is possible to borrow ownership, but that’s a level 200 course).
This is why stocks are often called equities, and vice versa.  
Think of yourself as a part owner, you can attend the annual meetings and vote on issues as requested by the board of directors – using what are known as “proxy statements”.  
You will probably have a very limited impact on the direction of the company unless you own 5% or more of the outstanding stock, what most people buy stocks for is to either a) participate in the growth of the stock price or b) get paid cash dividends as a reward for owning the stock.
In an ideal situation, both will happen, at which point you have to be clear on why you own the stock – is it for the growth, in which case you might want to sell it for a profit – or is it for the dividend (read: the cash flow) in which case you might not want to sell it.
A bond, on the other hand, has NOTHING to do with ownership.  A bond is like your mortgage loan or your car or other loan. It is an agreement between you and another party by which the lender gets paid a fixed amount of interest for a fixed period of time.  The cool part is that YOU are the lender.  YOU are the bank!  These are generally not as exciting as stocks, but that can be a good thing! Being the lender instead of the borrower can be a very positive and eye-opening experience!
So, what is a mutual fund then?  Fortunately this is easy.  A mutual fund is a basket of various stocks, or a basket of various bonds, or in some cases, both. Which of those 3 general approaches, and which specific investments are held by the mutual fund are defined by the fund’s prospectus, which states what their objective is, and what they can and cannot do, so that other people can hold them accountable for doing what they say they will.
Mutual funds are often a little more expensive that individual stocks and bonds, simply because you’re dividing your money among many different investments, a form of diversification, rather than having everything in one basket.
Further questions? Go to http://www.whattoinvestinnow.com

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What To Invest In Now - College Investing - Where Do I Start?

Lifetime Career Earnings:  
 High School Graduate Versus College Graduate

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Finally, an easy question!  I wish I could say that the answer was just as easy to take, but it’s not, because college costs continue to go through the roof.  
When I do a forecast for anyone saving for college, whether it’s for themselves later on or for their children or grandchildren, I forecast the college tuition inflation rate to be no less than 7%, which is twice the average inflation rate for the rest of the economy.
So, the biggest and hardest part to get through is going to be how much you might have to save and how early you might have to start.  
In my neighborhood, there are dozens of young families pushing around baby strollers.  When I ask them about their college savings, they let me know it’s really early and they don’t need to start yet.  If only that were true.
Right now, a typical in-state school cost for the state of Washington right now is about $14,600 per year, for tuition, room, board, books and lab fees.  
If you have a new child this year who will be starting in the fall of 2027, the cost then is closer to $54,000 per year.  Other states are more expensive even for state schools.  
We’ll do a specific plan for you when we start working together, but just take away from this discussion that it isn’t something to put off!
What’s the next thing to consider?  
What it costs to get the money back out, to actually pay for tuition and the other fees of course!  With a state-sponsored 529 plan, you can get your money back out to pay the bills as you need to with, get this, absolutely no federal income tax at all!
Even more, you don’t have to live in the state where the plan is based.  “What do you mean, where the plan is based?”  Every state has to sponsor at least one plan, and in most cases, they partner with one or more mutual fund companies to actually provide the 529 plan structure and the underlying investments.  
So, for example, you could live in California and save in the Virginia plan, or the New Jersey plan or the Arizona plan.  In some cases, you can get a state tax benefit by using your own state’s plan, but that isn’t necessarily the only deciding factor.
OK, so what happens if Junior doesn’t go to college?  It’s fine.  The state 529 plans I work with are accepted by any institution which accepts U.S. Federal Financial Aid.  So, if Junior wants to be a pilot or a chef or a professional golfer, the funds are still there.
If Junior gets a scholarship, you can withdraw a matching amount from the 529 and re-use it for your own purposes.  If he doesn’t use it for undergraduate school, it’s good for 30 years after high school graduation, so he could use it for a Master’s program or a Doctoral program.
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And if there’s money left over when all is said and done?  
You can change the beneficiary of the plan to a sibling, or grandkids, or even to yourself, and use the remaining funds that way.

The Client ­ Advisor Relationship

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OK, take a deep breath.  Done?  Great, now answer this question for me: what do you think of when you consider the idea of a financial advisor?
Do you think of someone who can take your order to do something for you in the stock, bond or mutual fund markets?  That’s part of it, but if that’s where your thinking stops, and it does for many people, then your best bet is to find a do-it-yourself discount broker and save a little bit of money.  (We’ll get to the real cost of that later).
Maybe you think of someone who can look at the big picture, put together a complete plan, put that in a box and tie a bow around it, and hand it to you for a flat fee usually somewhere in the $3,000 - $4,000 range.  Armed with that information, you go off and find a do-it-yourself discount broker and pay him or her for the transaction fees after paying for the plan.  When changes need to be made to the plan, which you might or might not be able to recognize on your own, you can always hire the planner again and pay them to tell you what changes to make.
If you don’t have that time or expertise, you can always work with someone who will charge you a full-service fee for access to the markets, as well as charging you an annual fee of perhaps 1.5% - 2.0% of the size of your accounts to do the planning. Pretty expensive, but at least they’re providing an integrated service, right?
Do I think any of those choices are a good idea?  No, I don’t.  Am I biased in my thinking?  Yes, I am!  The bad news there is that I’m biased for my own benefit, because I want your business.  The good news is that I’m also biased on your behalf, because I want you to have the best deal at the same time!
OK, you say, I’ve read this far, so what IS that best deal?
I recommend that you choose to work with someone like me, who charges you those full-service fees for access to the markets, and who also does end-to-end planning for your entire life and your entire family.  The difference?  I don’t charge for any of the research, the planning, the appointments, or answering questions when you have them, even if it’s not time for your next appointment.  If you really want to pay the annual fee, we can work that out, but I won’t charge you any commission, the fee will only be 1.35% and you’ll benefit even more by getting a refund on a portion of the money charged every year by the mutual fund companies to market their products for them.  (Most people don’t even know about those fees, and here I am telling you about them already!)
What does working with me look like?  Take a look at the chart showing how I approach the relationship we’ll have. It shows a lot of areas that, if not important to you yet, will be as time goes on.  Financial Planning and Investment Strategy are important from the very beginning of your plan, but only after we’ve built a relationship and we know who each other is and how each other thinks.
Investment Policy is the rules I have to follow that fit your goals and needs, and I’ll ask you a lot of questions to establish that.  Insurance is the protection that you, your family and your assets deserve. The best financial plan in the world is lacking badly if you’re not protected against losing it, and that’s true whether you’re younger with a spouse and children, or older and possibly facing the need for in-home care or even assisted living.  Trust me, you don’t want to pay for that directly when there are much cheaper alternatives.  Tax Planning is an important step to make sure that you’re not paying too much to the federal government that could instead be benefiting you.  Estate Planning and Charitable Giving are keys to passing things on to the next generation, or the one after that, and/or to your favorite charity, all without sticking them with the taxes.
The only thing I don’t do in the accompanying chart is Tax Preparation, because I’m not a licensed CPA, but I do know competent people who can do that for you if you’re local, and I’m happy to work with your tax professional via the phone if you live somewhere else.  I’m also not an attorney, so I can’t draw up your estate plan for you, but you and I can determine if one might be to your benefit, and I’ll work with your attorney as well to make sure your needs are being addressed.
You might be thinking at this point that, since you’re a pretty smart person (which I know because you’re reading a financial blog in the first place), that you can do all of this by yourself and save a bunch of money.  The real question is, what’s the cost of not knowing everything and getting something wrong, or just missing a key element of what you should be doing?
All of us, including me, need objective team members to help them get to where they want to be, because there’s just no way to be unemotional and completely objective about our own finances.  This way you also get to use “OPR”, otherwise known as “Other People’s Resources”, to help you get to where you want to be.

Why Did The Stock Market Drop After Last Week¹s Unemployment Report?

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The stock market dropped after last week’s unemployment report for one reason, and one reason only.  That reason is short-term investors.  

We’re not talking about the proverbial day traders here, but ordinary people with ordinary fears and concerns who are not able to distance themselves emotionally far enough from their money to do serious investing.  We’re talking about most people.

We’re not just talking about unemployment reports.  We’re talking about any economic “news”, such as housing starts, manufacturing orders, foreclosures, mortgage rates, trade deficits, and a few dozen other factors which can be interpreted to mean different things by different people.  Primarily though, we’re comparing what actually happens with what “experts” forecast.  Even though we’ve seen a marked decrease in the number of new jobless claims, the unemployment numbers last week were a tiny bit higher than what was forecast.

This is not unlike the famous, or infamous, “guidance” which many companies offer as to how much money they will earn per share of their stock.  For example, a company might say they’ll earn $1.00 per share, and various analysts will agree or disagree with that, some higher and some lower.  Short-term investors effectively then make bets on who’s right, and of course, not everyone is. Bottom line, once per quarter these public companies have to formally report what actually happened, and the official results are either “beat”, “in-line” or “missed”.   Beat means they earned more than the consensus of what all the analysts said.  In-line means they met expectations but did not exceed them.  Missed means they made less than forecast.

The economic reports, like the unemployment report, produce a similar reaction to the earnings reports.  

If they “beat”, the stock could go way up, unless the experts think that there’s some good news that caused that which everyone already knows, in which case the stock price stays the same, or might even go down a little because the high expectations weren’t met.

If they “miss”, the stock is almost sure to drop, and maybe to drop hard.  The irony of that is that the company might be doing very well, even making a good chunk of change, but not the amount that was “forecast”. For this reason, some companies have recently decided to not play the “guidance” game anymore, and I can’t blame them.

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So, why don’t you need to worry about all this?  

Because, if you’re listening, you’re realizing that the way to success is to be a long-term investor, someone who buys good-quality companies at fair prices, and doesn’t sell them until they’re at the top, or maybe not even then if they don’t need the money.

Bottom line?

Figure out what to pay attention to, and what to ignore.  

That’s where I come in, to provide guidance along those lines, help you define your goals and keep you focused on doing the right thing for yourself and the ones you love.  Is that okay with you?

Please contact me @ http://www.whattoinvestinnow.com
Leave your name and email and I will get back to you ASAP so that you can stop work hard and start working Smart!

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USDA Sub-Prime Loans ­ Are They For Real?

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Unfortunately, yes. Wait a minute, did you say USDA?

As in, United States Department of Agriculture?
We’ve heard of USDA Prime Steaks, but USDA Sub-Prime Loans?  
What are you talking about?

We’re talking about a previously almost unknown and little-used program founded in 1949 to encourage the development and sales of homes in mostly rural parts of the country by, see if this sounds familiar, not requiring any down payment on the loan.

Just like the “low-doc” and “no-doc” and “interest only” loans of the mid-2000s, over which we still have a major hangover and which have certainly contributed to the record number of foreclosures we’re seeing, any loan which requires no down payment means nothing at risk for the borrower except the possibility of bankruptcy or having a foreclosure on their record, and lots of people don’t know how bad those can be unless they’ve been through it.

When the program was first founded it made a lot of sense, but even in the current market, where lots of plans to increase business by not requiring down payments has all but completely blown up in the past two years, this program was bound to be discovered and amplified in a way that was never intended, so that since we began the financial crisis which seems to be trying to end, the program has attracted interest way beyond what it ever had before.  Through September of this year, we’re looking at almost four times the number of USDA-guaranteed loans than were approved for all of 2007.

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What does all of this boil down to for us?  

DON’T DO IT!

Yes, I know, if you live in an expensive part of the country it takes forever to save up a down payment.  

If you go bankrupt, it takes ten years before that’s no longer on your record, too.

That’s all you need to know about USDA loans.!.  

Instead, decide right now to live within your means, which includes saving and investing 20% of your gross income in a combination of your 401K and other market investments, some of which might eventually be in real estate investments if they are appropriate for you.  

If your means aren’t enough, you can talk to me to figure out what you might do to increase them, but whatever you do, please be patient.  Good investing is a lot more like watching paint dry than winning at the roulette table.  

Too bad that doesn’t make for a very good movie!


To get in touch with me please leave your Name and Email @ http://www.whattoinvestinnow.com


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